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Good day to you
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Showing posts with label announcements. Show all posts
Showing posts with label announcements. Show all posts
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Saturday, 26 November 2011
the Juice weekly vol. 1
EDITOR'S NOTE
Volume 1 of the Juice weekly is here on the soft launch of market-juice.
In this weekly note, we shall be covering all the Juice in charts, banters, news and anything noteworthy in the markets.
Do give us your feedback to help us improve this note to you.
Have a great weekend!
FEATURE
Chart of the week
In our first edition, we shall look at one of the leading benchmark indices of the world, the S&P 500
S&P Daily Candlesticks
Click to expand
S&P Weekly Candlesticks
Click to expand
We shall do our charting covering the following factors:
Candles: Dark candle momentum may be set to continue both on the Daily and Weekly
Moving Averages: MAs on the Daily have since give a -ve cross while on the Weekly there seems to be hope for another rebound
Oscillators (RSI and Stochastics): Daily oscillators are oversold while Weekly
Ichimoku Overlay: Price action is trading under the could, -ve signs both on the Daily and Weekly. Chikou Span has had a negative cross which may be set to continue as well
Some basics on the Ichimoku Overlay:
Tenkan Sen (Similar to Shorter term moving average)
Kijun Sen (Similar to Longer term moving average)
Ichimoku cloud (Support and resistance indicator)
Chikou Span (Lagging indicator)
Verdict: Market could have more weakness in the coming week while some strength remains in the coming month. As such, the probability of a large crash moving forward is relatively low while there exists a probability of a short-term bounce in the coming month. However, the strength of bounce may not be strong.
Do note that the above is just technical analysis. A more comprehensive analysis will require fundamental valuation of index components and also the analysis of market behaviour (based on psychology instead of charts). And this is beyond the scope of this section.
Banter
These points are excerpts from a coffee shop discussion with an interest-rate swap dealer:
1) Banks are increasing lending rates and tightening credit limits. They seem to be reducing risk
2) This is not normal as banks would want to lend more if interest rates can be increased. They will make more money getting more interest on their lending. Reducing credit limits are contradicting
3) Highly leveraged individuals or businesses may be more badly affected
Comment: A rather bleak and depressing discussion. The effects of which may only be felt towards the middle of 2012. As for now, let's enjoy the ride in the markets while keeping tabs to conserve for the future
Volume 1 of the Juice weekly is here on the soft launch of market-juice.
In this weekly note, we shall be covering all the Juice in charts, banters, news and anything noteworthy in the markets.
Do give us your feedback to help us improve this note to you.
Have a great weekend!
FEATURE
Chart of the week
In our first edition, we shall look at one of the leading benchmark indices of the world, the S&P 500
S&P Daily Candlesticks
Click to expand
S&P Weekly Candlesticks
Click to expand
We shall do our charting covering the following factors:
Candles: Dark candle momentum may be set to continue both on the Daily and Weekly
Moving Averages: MAs on the Daily have since give a -ve cross while on the Weekly there seems to be hope for another rebound
Oscillators (RSI and Stochastics): Daily oscillators are oversold while Weekly
Ichimoku Overlay: Price action is trading under the could, -ve signs both on the Daily and Weekly. Chikou Span has had a negative cross which may be set to continue as well
Some basics on the Ichimoku Overlay:
Tenkan Sen (Similar to Shorter term moving average)
Kijun Sen (Similar to Longer term moving average)
Ichimoku cloud (Support and resistance indicator)
Chikou Span (Lagging indicator)
Verdict: Market could have more weakness in the coming week while some strength remains in the coming month. As such, the probability of a large crash moving forward is relatively low while there exists a probability of a short-term bounce in the coming month. However, the strength of bounce may not be strong.
Do note that the above is just technical analysis. A more comprehensive analysis will require fundamental valuation of index components and also the analysis of market behaviour (based on psychology instead of charts). And this is beyond the scope of this section.
Banter
These points are excerpts from a coffee shop discussion with an interest-rate swap dealer:
1) Banks are increasing lending rates and tightening credit limits. They seem to be reducing risk
2) This is not normal as banks would want to lend more if interest rates can be increased. They will make more money getting more interest on their lending. Reducing credit limits are contradicting
3) Highly leveraged individuals or businesses may be more badly affected
Comment: A rather bleak and depressing discussion. The effects of which may only be felt towards the middle of 2012. As for now, let's enjoy the ride in the markets while keeping tabs to conserve for the future
Wednesday, 23 July 2008
一目均衡表
Announcements
The inconsistent posting is regretted. Be sure to check this space every week. I will update it once a week from now on. No point updating everyday as I am not a reporter.
Market Action
Notice I dropped the "Today". I suppose it is more useful to share a boarder view.
The market seems bullish in the short term. However, near term correction is highly possible. Regional markets like the Nikkei and Hang Seng have had strong gains since last week. As of today, the STI gained 88.32 points to finish at 2978.32. In the region, the HSI gained a whooping 607.07 points to reach 23134.55 and the Nikkei also climbed 127.97 points to 13312.93.
Insights and Opinion
I have had comments that my insights needed to be a bit more "insightful". As I endeavour to upgrade the content on this site, here is the first invention to roll out. Introducing, Mao's Ichimoku.
The 一目均衡表 (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) was invented in 1935 by a Japanese writer named 細田悟一氏. It is technical indicator used in technical analysis. Its full definition can be found at Investopedia.
For the purpose of my research, I have customised the Ichimoku for my analysis. I have attached 2 diagrams below to illustrate my findings using Mao's Ichimoku. The customised Ichimoku here has had its variables changed even though the lines are used for the same purpose. Mao's Ichimoku is used best to gauge quarterly (3-month) outlook. Click on the pictures to enlarge them.
Here we have the STI Candlestick chart with Mao's Ichimoku overlay. The Blue line is the Tenkan Sen, Red line is the Kijun Sen. These work like moving averages over a period of 8 and 21 days respectively. The Baby Blue line and Pink line are the Senkou Span A and Span B respectively. The area between the lines are the Ichimoku cloud which is a gauge for support and resistance.
From this chart, the STI is likely to retrace when it reaches 3030 to about 2940 levels. The retracement process will take 2 to 3 trading days. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 3150. 3150 is the part just above the cloud. Due to the current state of the economic fundamentals, it is not likely to see the market break very much above the cloud. Technically speaking from the trend in the chart, it is unlikely that it will not reach for the resistance level in the short term.
Now for the HSI. The HSI is likely to retrace when it reaches 23300 to about 22400 levels. The retracement process is likely to happen within the next 2 trading days and will take 2 to 3 trading days to complete. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 24500. Again, 24500 is the part just above the cloud. Economic fundamentals and technical indicators that apply to the STI are applicable here as well.
Hope you enjoyed this post and found the information useful. Feel free to comment :)
The inconsistent posting is regretted. Be sure to check this space every week. I will update it once a week from now on. No point updating everyday as I am not a reporter.
Market Action
Notice I dropped the "Today". I suppose it is more useful to share a boarder view.
The market seems bullish in the short term. However, near term correction is highly possible. Regional markets like the Nikkei and Hang Seng have had strong gains since last week. As of today, the STI gained 88.32 points to finish at 2978.32. In the region, the HSI gained a whooping 607.07 points to reach 23134.55 and the Nikkei also climbed 127.97 points to 13312.93.
Insights and Opinion
I have had comments that my insights needed to be a bit more "insightful". As I endeavour to upgrade the content on this site, here is the first invention to roll out. Introducing, Mao's Ichimoku.
The 一目均衡表 (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) was invented in 1935 by a Japanese writer named 細田悟一氏. It is technical indicator used in technical analysis. Its full definition can be found at Investopedia.
For the purpose of my research, I have customised the Ichimoku for my analysis. I have attached 2 diagrams below to illustrate my findings using Mao's Ichimoku. The customised Ichimoku here has had its variables changed even though the lines are used for the same purpose. Mao's Ichimoku is used best to gauge quarterly (3-month) outlook. Click on the pictures to enlarge them.
Here we have the STI Candlestick chart with Mao's Ichimoku overlay. The Blue line is the Tenkan Sen, Red line is the Kijun Sen. These work like moving averages over a period of 8 and 21 days respectively. The Baby Blue line and Pink line are the Senkou Span A and Span B respectively. The area between the lines are the Ichimoku cloud which is a gauge for support and resistance.
From this chart, the STI is likely to retrace when it reaches 3030 to about 2940 levels. The retracement process will take 2 to 3 trading days. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 3150. 3150 is the part just above the cloud. Due to the current state of the economic fundamentals, it is not likely to see the market break very much above the cloud. Technically speaking from the trend in the chart, it is unlikely that it will not reach for the resistance level in the short term.
Now for the HSI. The HSI is likely to retrace when it reaches 23300 to about 22400 levels. The retracement process is likely to happen within the next 2 trading days and will take 2 to 3 trading days to complete. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 24500. Again, 24500 is the part just above the cloud. Economic fundamentals and technical indicators that apply to the STI are applicable here as well.
Hope you enjoyed this post and found the information useful. Feel free to comment :)
Tuesday, 15 July 2008
Posting resumes
Announcements
Apologies to those who read this page and did not find something new until now. I seem to be short of Thursday, Friday and Monday. The good news is, you have not missed much as TODAY is what matters now.
Today's Market Action
The market fell by 2.53% today, plunging 73.37 points and finishing at 2830.75. This has not happened since March. The market seems to be going down and completing its head and shoulder cycle. Sentiments are weak considering that Put warrants are in the Top Gainers and Top Losers are the index stocks.
Insights and Opinion
My near term estimate of 2900 +/- 50 has been broken. The market seems to be heading for a rebound, considering it is ranging. RSI and stocastics confirm this. However, I will not be too sure about when the rebound will start and when it will complete. In March, the market spent about 2 weeks at a low and took another 2 weeks to climb to 3150 levels. It will not be surprising if this happens again. I would expect to see "smaller scale ranging" phenomenon at current levels of 2850 +/- 50 for the next few days. But. There could be a chance of a longer recovery completing the U-shaped, temporary recovery. The resistance can be set at about 3050 +/- 50. This can be a good chance to long index stocks for a few weeks.
Further, fundamentals are weak considering the coupling of markets in the region with the US where things have not been doing very well. A rebound of equity markets would probably be fueled by a correction in commodity prices as a lot of people are expecting. Market movements are, a self-fulfilling prophesy.
Apologies to those who read this page and did not find something new until now. I seem to be short of Thursday, Friday and Monday. The good news is, you have not missed much as TODAY is what matters now.
Today's Market Action
The market fell by 2.53% today, plunging 73.37 points and finishing at 2830.75. This has not happened since March. The market seems to be going down and completing its head and shoulder cycle. Sentiments are weak considering that Put warrants are in the Top Gainers and Top Losers are the index stocks.
Insights and Opinion
My near term estimate of 2900 +/- 50 has been broken. The market seems to be heading for a rebound, considering it is ranging. RSI and stocastics confirm this. However, I will not be too sure about when the rebound will start and when it will complete. In March, the market spent about 2 weeks at a low and took another 2 weeks to climb to 3150 levels. It will not be surprising if this happens again. I would expect to see "smaller scale ranging" phenomenon at current levels of 2850 +/- 50 for the next few days. But. There could be a chance of a longer recovery completing the U-shaped, temporary recovery. The resistance can be set at about 3050 +/- 50. This can be a good chance to long index stocks for a few weeks.
Further, fundamentals are weak considering the coupling of markets in the region with the US where things have not been doing very well. A rebound of equity markets would probably be fueled by a correction in commodity prices as a lot of people are expecting. Market movements are, a self-fulfilling prophesy.
Monday, 7 July 2008
Rebound
Announcements:
Posts from now on shall follow a specific format. This shall give readers a better and more systematic view of daily insights. And YES! Daily posting shall resume since there is something new in the market everyday.
Today's Market Action:
The local market surged 41.58 points today to close at 2934.12. CityDev led the Top Gainers, up $0.400 or 3.7% together with other index weights. Call Warrants (CW) dominated the Top % Gainers. Gold 10US$ led the Top Losers falling $1.52 or 1.6%. Standing with it are Put Warrants (PW). Top % Losers include blue-chip Calls and index Puts. The STI seems to have moved closely in tandem with the HSI and the N225 for today.
My Insights and Opinions:
The market has kept within my estimated band of 2900 +/- 50, hitting a low of 2862.27 on the 3rd of July. The current uptrend seems strong but a little too strong to be sustainable in the short term. Relative Strength Index (RSI)* from the 3-month chart shows that the market is moving into "range" territory between 40% to 60%. That can be a good sign in times of economic weakness. A future breakout may indicate a start of a recovery.
CW in the Gainers with PW in the Losers are a clear sign of a very short term uptrend. However, due to the implied volatility that CW and PW are subjected to, this clearly shows the volatility and corresponding uncertainty of the current market.
Considering the above points, my view on seizing opportunities still hold for a longer term outlook. However, current prices are unattractive in the short term.
*RSI = 100 - 100/(1 + RS) where, RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes
Posts from now on shall follow a specific format. This shall give readers a better and more systematic view of daily insights. And YES! Daily posting shall resume since there is something new in the market everyday.
Today's Market Action:
The local market surged 41.58 points today to close at 2934.12. CityDev led the Top Gainers, up $0.400 or 3.7% together with other index weights. Call Warrants (CW) dominated the Top % Gainers. Gold 10US$ led the Top Losers falling $1.52 or 1.6%. Standing with it are Put Warrants (PW). Top % Losers include blue-chip Calls and index Puts. The STI seems to have moved closely in tandem with the HSI and the N225 for today.
My Insights and Opinions:
The market has kept within my estimated band of 2900 +/- 50, hitting a low of 2862.27 on the 3rd of July. The current uptrend seems strong but a little too strong to be sustainable in the short term. Relative Strength Index (RSI)* from the 3-month chart shows that the market is moving into "range" territory between 40% to 60%. That can be a good sign in times of economic weakness. A future breakout may indicate a start of a recovery.
CW in the Gainers with PW in the Losers are a clear sign of a very short term uptrend. However, due to the implied volatility that CW and PW are subjected to, this clearly shows the volatility and corresponding uncertainty of the current market.
Considering the above points, my view on seizing opportunities still hold for a longer term outlook. However, current prices are unattractive in the short term.
*RSI = 100 - 100/(1 + RS) where, RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes
Wednesday, 2 July 2008
Lost of Direction
The market seems to have been a little lost today. It opened a little higher and surged about 14 points upwards before crashing about 35 points under the 2900 mark and then recovering to close 0.56 points lower than yesterday at 2906.23. A roller coaster ride indeed.
Even though today's action showed a glimpse of hope between 4pm to 5pm, the downward trend persisted after 5pm. I would expect tomorrow to be a bleak day. Wall Street continues to be weak today as this post is written. Technically speaking, all is not good.
Despite the gloomy days ahead, I would like to keep an optimistic outlook in suggesting that people look out for valuable buys. A point to note is that markets crash faster than they recover. This would mean that bad times are less than good times. Some might wish to go for speculative very short term trades. However, I am not in a good position to comment as a speculator and to advocate that. I am an analyst who looks more at the numbers, not a speculator.
Good news for readers as I am now developing a set of customised indicators that I can soon post a snapshot of and give all readers a picture of what I am writing about. Finally, pictures and explanations! Please do join my poll to give me feedback. I shall be constantly improving this site and providing better insights. Readers can expect posts to pick up in this volatile season however, the standard will still be kept to at least 1 post per week.
Even though today's action showed a glimpse of hope between 4pm to 5pm, the downward trend persisted after 5pm. I would expect tomorrow to be a bleak day. Wall Street continues to be weak today as this post is written. Technically speaking, all is not good.
Despite the gloomy days ahead, I would like to keep an optimistic outlook in suggesting that people look out for valuable buys. A point to note is that markets crash faster than they recover. This would mean that bad times are less than good times. Some might wish to go for speculative very short term trades. However, I am not in a good position to comment as a speculator and to advocate that. I am an analyst who looks more at the numbers, not a speculator.
Good news for readers as I am now developing a set of customised indicators that I can soon post a snapshot of and give all readers a picture of what I am writing about. Finally, pictures and explanations! Please do join my poll to give me feedback. I shall be constantly improving this site and providing better insights. Readers can expect posts to pick up in this volatile season however, the standard will still be kept to at least 1 post per week.
Thursday, 26 June 2008
A weekly update indeed
As I mentioned, there shall be weekly updates on this site. There will be. Thank you, the readers.
The Singapore market has seen a little intra-day spike today, in line with the Dow and Hang Seng. The Nikkei seems like it is beginning to decouple however, there is no clear indication of that in the near term.
Blue chips that I have been watching on the local market have dipped significantly with counters like Kep Corp now under $11 and F&N in the $4.50 range. Popular Yangzijiang shipbuilder has fallen approximately 10% in the past few weeks.
The Fed's "hold" stance on Fed funds rate has caused a short live exuberance to the market until the realisation that required rate of return shall remain low or the time being. This has made equities less attractive in this inflationary environment.
Back to the market, today's little "tombstone" candlestick could well spell the death of optimism that started just yesterday. The near term can be expected to be down. However, considering the Singapore market's coupling with the US and regional markets, I would not consider revising my target of 2950 +/- 50. The DOW has reached it's March levels. Market sentiment there is negative but March's recession fears have been softened. Significantly further downside is unlikely. Japan has been doing better than Hong Kong and Singapore, a slight divergence has been noticed in the past month. Hong Kong has been moving very closely in line with the Singapore market which can be observed to be taking cues from the US.
I am currently watching for a bottom, buying spree.
The Singapore market has seen a little intra-day spike today, in line with the Dow and Hang Seng. The Nikkei seems like it is beginning to decouple however, there is no clear indication of that in the near term.
Blue chips that I have been watching on the local market have dipped significantly with counters like Kep Corp now under $11 and F&N in the $4.50 range. Popular Yangzijiang shipbuilder has fallen approximately 10% in the past few weeks.
The Fed's "hold" stance on Fed funds rate has caused a short live exuberance to the market until the realisation that required rate of return shall remain low or the time being. This has made equities less attractive in this inflationary environment.
Back to the market, today's little "tombstone" candlestick could well spell the death of optimism that started just yesterday. The near term can be expected to be down. However, considering the Singapore market's coupling with the US and regional markets, I would not consider revising my target of 2950 +/- 50. The DOW has reached it's March levels. Market sentiment there is negative but March's recession fears have been softened. Significantly further downside is unlikely. Japan has been doing better than Hong Kong and Singapore, a slight divergence has been noticed in the past month. Hong Kong has been moving very closely in line with the Singapore market which can be observed to be taking cues from the US.
I am currently watching for a bottom, buying spree.
Tuesday, 13 May 2008
Notice
No market wrap today.
I think it is more valuable for me to do good insights once in a while rather than churning out posts everyday just for the sake of it. It makes me no different from a newspaper reporter, which I am not and do not wish to be at least for now and for the purpose of posting here.
So until there is some adverse change happening, I shall keep my posts to be a weekly wrap every weekend.
Look out for that! ;)
I think it is more valuable for me to do good insights once in a while rather than churning out posts everyday just for the sake of it. It makes me no different from a newspaper reporter, which I am not and do not wish to be at least for now and for the purpose of posting here.
So until there is some adverse change happening, I shall keep my posts to be a weekly wrap every weekend.
Look out for that! ;)
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