Volume 1 of the Juice weekly is here on the soft launch of market-juice.
In this weekly note, we shall be covering all the Juice in charts, banters, news and anything noteworthy in the markets.
Do give us your feedback to help us improve this note to you.
Have a great weekend!
FEATURE
Chart of the week
In our first edition, we shall look at one of the leading benchmark indices of the world, the S&P 500
S&P Daily Candlesticks
Click to expand
S&P Weekly Candlesticks
Click to expand
We shall do our charting covering the following factors:
Candles: Dark candle momentum may be set to continue both on the Daily and Weekly
Moving Averages: MAs on the Daily have since give a -ve cross while on the Weekly there seems to be hope for another rebound
Oscillators (RSI and Stochastics): Daily oscillators are oversold while Weekly
Ichimoku Overlay: Price action is trading under the could, -ve signs both on the Daily and Weekly. Chikou Span has had a negative cross which may be set to continue as well
Some basics on the Ichimoku Overlay:
Tenkan Sen (Similar to Shorter term moving average)
Kijun Sen (Similar to Longer term moving average)
Ichimoku cloud (Support and resistance indicator)
Chikou Span (Lagging indicator)
Verdict: Market could have more weakness in the coming week while some strength remains in the coming month. As such, the probability of a large crash moving forward is relatively low while there exists a probability of a short-term bounce in the coming month. However, the strength of bounce may not be strong.
Do note that the above is just technical analysis. A more comprehensive analysis will require fundamental valuation of index components and also the analysis of market behaviour (based on psychology instead of charts). And this is beyond the scope of this section.
Banter
These points are excerpts from a coffee shop discussion with an interest-rate swap dealer:
1) Banks are increasing lending rates and tightening credit limits. They seem to be reducing risk
2) This is not normal as banks would want to lend more if interest rates can be increased. They will make more money getting more interest on their lending. Reducing credit limits are contradicting
3) Highly leveraged individuals or businesses may be more badly affected
Comment: A rather bleak and depressing discussion. The effects of which may only be felt towards the middle of 2012. As for now, let's enjoy the ride in the markets while keeping tabs to conserve for the future
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