Market Views 12 January 2012

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Announcements

There has been some problem sending this mail to Yahoo!Mail accounts the last few days. Please refer to web, facebook or twitter versions.

Happy New Year ☺

This year, there will be a series of seminars to help everyone better understand the markets.

Market-Juice Seminar Series will be covered over 6 months with 1 session each month.

We will start with "Mindset Tuning – the Optimal Attitude to Stock Market Investments" coming in the first week of Feb

Look out for more details coming soon


Juice

Macro
Spain auctions as much as 5b euros of 2015 and 2016 securities today, with Italy selling as much as 12b euros of bills today and as much as 4.75b euros of bonds in tomorrow.
Comment: Important to note the outcome of the debt sales by Spain and Italy. Note the take-up rate and the yields. We can also take direction from the movement of the EUR/USD pair and also the EU markets when they open for some expectations later

O&M
STX OSV's (MS7) stock price has started peeling away from the broader market in the past week, stoking expectations that its parent STX Europe might soon be selling its 50.75% majority stake in the offshore vessel builder.
Comment: Be careful of this one. If the share sales gets played again, this may cause a very strong sell off again

Property
Over in Choa Chu Kang, CDL has priced The Rainforest EC at about $730 psf on average for buyers on the normal progress payment scheme. The first-day sales result for The Rainforest is similar to the slightly over 150 units CDL sold for its Blossom Residences EC project at Segar Road in July last year. That project was priced at $685 psf on average. Those who opt for the deferred payment scheme (DPS) - which is still available for EC projects - will pay 3% more.
Comment: Property market remains weak but the property developers seemed to have bottomed out after a lousy performance in 2011. Time to look around and fish for possible winners. Keeping and eye on Capitaland (C31) CMA (JS8) and Kepland (K17) to accumulate on dips


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 10 January 2012

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Announcements

Happy New Year ☺

This year, there will be a series of seminars to help everyone better understand the markets.

Market-Juice Seminar Series will be covered over 6 months with 1 session each month.

We will start with "Mindset Tuning – the Optimal Attitude to Stock Market Investments" coming in the first week of Feb

Look out for more details coming soon


Juice

Fund Flows
Hedge funds sit out rally with speculation on stock gains close to ’09 low. Rallying stocks have done little to entice professional money managers back to U.S. equities.
Comment: They probably lost too much last year to be too daring at the start of the year

O&M
Keppel (BN4) AmFELS to Construct and Upgrade Deepwater Semisubmersible for Diamond Offshore for US$150 million
Comment: This brings Keppel's orderbook to S$10.9b. Orderbook is stronger but price may be on the high side now

Ezra's (5DN) subsea construction division EMAS AMC wins about 450 million krone (S$97million) Statoil contracts in the North Sea on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The deals are worth up to 600 million krone if options to expand the work to more floating platforms are exercised.
Comment: Note that Ezra is closing on its US$1b target orderbook. Which is a good thing


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market views 09 January 2012

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Announcements

Happy New Year ☺

This year, I will be planning a slew of courses to help everyone better understand the market and also to introduce everyone to topics that no one else covers in courses outside, either that, or they charge lots of money for it

We will start with "Mindset Tuning – the Optimal Attitude to Stock Market Investments" coming in the first week of Feb
Look out for more details coming soon

Japan is closed for "Coming of Age Day"

Juice

Management Changes
Management changes announced last Fri may catch the eye; SMRT (S53) named Tan Ek Kia interim CEO after Saw Phaik Hwa resigned following public outcry over recent service disruptions, while Cosco (F83) named Ma Ze Hua as chairman to replace retiring Liu Guo Yuan.
Comment: My MRT train was delayed again this morning. Let's hope the on-coming fellow does a better job. However, I think it is unlikely much better unless they change the government-linked company's culture inside out, change the people and the profile of the people they hire. But that will be disastrous for those who work for SMRT. This is not a problem that can be solved in the short term or just by changing CEO. The engineers still need time to solve the disruptions, and the company will need time to change their train system maintenance policy and also audit methods
As for Cosco, granted that the out-going Chairman is old. This change should not be a red-flag to signal that something is very wrong

Noteworthy Analyst Calls
Biosensors (B20): Nomura reiterate Buy, increase TP to $1.90 from $1.70. House tweak forecasts to account for the conversion of the US$120m notes by Weigao and price pressure in Japan, and raise TP to incorporate the potential of the group entering the US market.
Comment: Biosensors is attending JPM conference this week. This may bring more attention to the stock

Genting SP (G13): UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy, TP $1.65 from $2.08. House note that profit growth may remain subdued in 2012. Q410, RWS’ VIP vol have been on a declining trend
Comment: Despite being everyone's favourite stock, I urge everyone to take note of the reality of the situation with Genting

SG Developers: Residential project Archipelago’s preview just prior to the announcement of the ABSD has seen 12% of units sold with options lapsed. DMG maintains Neutral on developers and SELL on City Dev C09)
Comment: Take note of the trend of lapsing options and revoking of purchase agreements

Rig Builders: JP Morgan has sector Outlook. House stays O/W on robust rig demand. Slight preference for KepCorp (BN4) over SembMar (S51) on the back of: KepCorp being more resilient (defensive) in an uncertain macro environment
Comment: Rig-building will continue to be profitable if oil price stays above US$80/barrel. We take note of the preference here

CPO: Daiwa notes that weather trade could go on for a while. CPO prices have benefitted from dry weather conditions in South America.
Potential soybean crop losses in South America are reversible if rain comes soon, which then might curb CPO price gains near term.
Comment: Preference is still for Goldenagri (E5H) as it has the largest plantations in the world. It is also the largest plantation (pure play) stock, meaning the main business is growing palm and not doing other business like its other competitors listed here


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market VIews 06 January 2012

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Announcements

Happy New Year ☺
This year, I will be planning a slew of courses to help everyone better understand the market and also to introduce everyone to topics that no one else covers in courses outside.
The idea is to have one session each month, free for clients.
Keep a look out for details here!


Juice

Shipping
Cosco(F83) announced that it has secured a US$220m contract to build 2 self-propelled construction vessels. Contract is awarded by an Asian Co. to Cosco (Nantong) Shipyard.
Kim Eng note that while the contract is certainly welcome news in the current soft offshore market, margins are likely to remain depressed due to learning curve issues on its earlier contracts. Bulk shipping newbuilds are still also dogged by execution issues and low pricing. Overall house maintain Sell recommendation with $0.72 TP.
Similarly CIMB maintains Sell with TP $0.92.
Comment: I won't pay too much attention to the analysts. Cosco is a counter to look out for in better times. Price is relatively high in this environment otherwise, it can be a good catch


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 05 January 2011

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Announcements

Happy New Year ☺
This year, I will be planning a slew of courses to help everyone better understand the market and also to introduce everyone to topics that no one else covers in courses outside.
The idea is to have one session each month, free for clients.
Keep a look out for details here!
Japan is having "Golden Week" this week


Juice

Singapore

December PMI came in at 49.5, better than expected and higher than November but still under 50 (above which signals expansion in manufacturing)Comment: Nothing new here. Technical recession is likely to be expected, as portaryed in the news also.

Analyst Reports

Biosensors by MS: Top pick for 2012. Expect further expansion of its distribution network in international markets, benefiting from the advanced technologies of its flagship product, BioMatrix. In addition, Co. expects to receive CE mark approval for its core pipeline product, BioFreedom, from the EU in 2012, which should be the key catalyst for the next 12-24 months.
Comment: Chart has broken its 52 week high. Looks bullish. Co. is having a presentation a JPMorgan's BioMedical Conference next week


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market-Juice Midday 04 January 2011

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Announcements

Happy New Year ☺
This year, I will be planning a slew of courses to help everyone better understand the market and also to introduce everyone to topics that no one else covers in courses outside.
The idea is to have one session each month, free for clients.
Keep a look out for details here!
Japan is having "Golden Week" this week

Juice

O&M

Keppel Corp (BN4), the world's largest rig builder, said on Tuesday its subsidiary had agreed to acquire a 49.9% stake in Norway's OWEC Tower, a designer of offshore wind turbine foundations, for about 61m norwegian crowns (US$10.3m)
Comment: Not much of a price mover by itself. Keppel will still move with the market

Yangzijiang said on Tuesday it now owned a 45% stake worth US$49.5m in YZJ Offshore Engineering Pte Ltd, a joint venture between Co. and Qatar Investment Corporation.
Comment: Not much of a price mover here but chart looks good and this can be an additional kicker. CIMB has a technicaly BUY on YZJ today

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 03 January 2011

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Announcements

Happy New Year ☺
This year, I will be planning a slew of courses to help everyone better understand the market and also to introduce everyone to topics that no one else covers in courses outside.
The idea is to have one session each month, free for clients.
Keep a look out for details here!
Japan is having "Golden Week" this week

Juice

Macro

Singapore GDP came in -4.9% q-o-q. Slighty better than expected (consensus: -5.0% Bloomberg, -5.5% Reuters)
Comment: 2 quarters of -ve growth to go into recession. We still need confirmation from Q1 2012

Palm Oil

Mewah (MV4) said Tuesday it plans to invest about US$145m in a crude palm oil refinery, packing plant and related logistics facilities in Indonesia. The project is expected to be completed by the end of its 2013 financial year, and will be financed through proceeds from its IPO, internal funds and bank borrowings. The refinery is expected to have an installed capacity of 630,000 MT/year. Co. also said it will delay the completion of its crude palm oil refinery in Sabah to prioritize its Indonesia refinery project, and will also delay the completion of its packing plants in Zhangjiagang and Tianjin.
Comment: Market might use this excuse to play up the stock. Take note that the delays in the other projects make this announcement a bit of a "no gain" even though output of refined products may increase by about 20% frm the current 3.8m MT/year

Shipping

Another tough year looms for shipping industry. Rates are unlikely to rebound, depressed by capacity glut, slow global growth. Experts agree rates are unlikely to rebound in 2012 across the tanker, bulk carrier and container shipping market because of too many ships meeting the world's demand for goods and energy.
Comment: Nothing interesting here. Stocks have been battered already. Take note that counters like NOL (N03), Cosco (F83) and Yangzijiang (BS6) are SIMSCI index stocks. This means that they can still be laggards if the market moves either way


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 29 December 2011

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Announcements

This is the last edition of Market-Juice for this year.
See you in 2012!
Happy New Year ☺


Juice

Small Caps

Osaki Electric Co yesterday revealed itself as the mystery bidder that is going head-to-head with rival Boer Power (1685.HK) for all of SMB United's (S16) issued shares. Osaki is offering 40c per share, against Boer's 32c proposal in late October.
Comment: Noteworthy only. Price has moved.


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market View 27 December 2011

Juice

O&M
STX OSV (MS7) wins Nok 200m deal to build forage carrier that transports fish feed to fish farms. With this newest contract, Co's order wins for the year come in at an estimated Nok 10.5b vs FY10 of Nok12.5b, and ahead of initial expectations in 2Q11. Note that it’s orderbook current stands at Nok 17.5b, underpinning earnings visibility till 2014.
Comment: This is one to look out for as the market recovers


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 22 December 2011

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Juice

Coal

Gloucester Coal (ASX: GCL) halts trading on ASX for at least the whole day today.
Gloucester Coal’s parent, Noble Group, is willing to sell most of its 64.5% stake to Yanzhou Coal, reducing odds of competing bids, Australian Financial Review reports, citing unidentified source close to Noble.
* Noble is said to consider retaining cornerstone stake, wants marketing & trading rights over coal output from new entity, AFR says
* Analysts say shareholders may get cash and shares in Australian unit Yancoal, with Yanzhou to control 60%-70% of new co.: AFR
* Yanzhou is expected to pay at least $2b, Bloomberg reported previously; shares of Gloucester, Yanzhou, Noble are halted
Comment: It is not in Noble (N21)'s interest to sell its entire stake in GCL. GCL remains a strategic asset in Australia for Noble. Considering this situation, a likely outcome is Noble selling a stake in GCL to Yanzhou but retaining a cornerstone stake. This will put cash back on its balance sheet, book a profit from the sale as well as continue to enjoy the advantage of this asset.
Noble is still halted today


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 21 December 2011

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Juice

Macro

USD falls against 16 most traded currency pairs
Comment: Basically, weakness in the DXY. Beneficial for commodities. Names here will be our usual suspects, Noble (N21) and Olam (O32)

O&M

Dyna-Mac (NO4) said it had secured orders potentially worth S$115m
Comment: Getting played on the back of rising oil prices and a falling USD too

Coal

Noble (N21) calls for a trading halt pending clarification of news regarding its subsidiary, Gloucester Coal
Comment: We covered this yesterday

Shipping

Two shipping consortiums, of which Neptune Orient Lines' APL is a part, will join forces to form one of the most extensive vessel networks in the world, called The G6 Alliance. 'Container shipping is coming back to its senses. The alliances formed now are on the scale we've not seen before. It is a sign of desperate times as we're seeing them make the necessary capacity adjustments and not fight for market share,' he said.
Comment: Desperate situations call for desperate measures. Seems that this alliance can really be beneficial. Container shipping is more efficient on a greater scale


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 20 December 2011

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Juice

Flows

Interesting points to note from BNY's data last night. Net selling of Asian equities after the death of Kim Jong Il
Comment: This can mean 1) Profit-taking to close the books for the year, 2) flight to safety as tensions and risk may rise after the passing of the North Korean leader

Yet another interesting point on the flow front is selling of Italian and Spanish debt in the past 2 trading sessions. Data shows that the selling is 3 standard deviations from the normal for Spain and about 2.5 standard deviations for Italy.
Comment: Anything away from the normal average is abnormal. Anything above 2 standard deviations away is statistically very abnormal. Something very wrong is happening at the moment which may also account for the fall of the EURO under 1.3000 yesterday and staying there

Property

GLP (MC0) and China Investment Corp (CIC) are buying 15 logistic properties in Japan for US$1.6b, expecting demand for warehousing to be strong after the earthquake moving forward
Comment: CIC's first foray into logistic properties in Japan. GLP already has a foothold, making them a viable partner. This is familiar ground for GLP and it is expected to do well. Again, risks here involve the well-being of the Japanese economy in general as well. A stronger yen will also be beneficial

Coal

China's Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (1171.HK) is in preliminary discussions with Gloucester Coal Ltd. (GCL.AU) to create a coal giant worth up to US$7.9b by merging their Australian assets, according to 3 people familiar with the matter.
Comment: Noble (N21) owns a 64.5% stake in Gloucester coal, which has a market capitalisation of US$1.4b. Such a deal may be beneficial to Noble if Yanzhou pays a premium for Gloucester. Do note that CIC owns a 14.5% stake in Noble


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 19 December 2011

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Juice

Macro

Bloomberg News tallied the debt disclosed by all 231 local government financing companies that sold bonds, notes or commercial paper through Dec. 10 this year. The total amounted to 3.96tril yuan (US$622bil), mostly in bank loans, more than the current size of the European bailout fund. There are 6,576 of such entities across China, according to a June count by the National Audit Office, which put their total debt at 4.97tril yuan. That means the 231 borrowers studied by Bloomberg have alone amassed more than 3/4 of the overall debt. The fact so few of the companies have accumulated that much debt suggests a bigger problem, says Fraser Howie, the MD of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. “You should be more worried than you think,” he said of Bloomberg’s findings. “Certainly more worried than the banks will tell you. “You know how this story ends -- badly.”
Comment: China cannnot save the world as it has its own problems. This boom may not be coming to bust anytime soon but we have to keep this in mind. The bubble shall burst in time to come

Property

Hong Kong luxury home rents, which fell last quarter for the first time since mid-2009, may slump 10% next year as banks and hedge funds scale back amid the threat of a global recession, according to brokers including Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. (JLL) and Colliers International. “We’re definitely at that tipping point,” said Anne-Marie Sage, Hong Kong-based head of residential leasing at Jones Lang. “We’ve began to see vacancies at the very top end of the market. The banking and the financial sector have basically stopped all movement.”
Comment: When it rains, it pours. While we already know that property prices are not going to hold up, rental market may crash as well. This phenomenon not only will occur in HK but in Singapore too. For those thinking that the economics of the 2 countries differ greatly, that may not be the case. Note that the foreigners holding up the rental market can be relocated easily regardless of industry or rank, be it white or blue-collared workers

China’s home prices posted their worst performance this year with more than half of the 70 biggest cities monitored in November recording declines after the government reiterated plans to maintain property curbs.
Comment: Where the money is coming from, the situation is bleak


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 16 December 2011

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Ideas

Macro
Michael Platt, founder of the $30b hedge fund BlueCrest Capital Management LLP, said most of the banks in Europe are insolvent and the situation will worsen in 2012 as the region’s debt crisis accelerates. Austerity will ultimately lead to slower growth in Europe, making the region’s debt woes even worse, he said. A solution will come when the European Central Bank pumps significant amounts of money into economies, something it lacks a mandate to do.
Comment: Seems that either way, European markets are gone. This is gradually being priced into the market through the selling of the EURO. The worst has not been fully priced in yet


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 15 December 2011

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Ideas

Rubber
GMG (5IM) announces two new JVs to expand natural rubber processing capacity in the Ivory Coast. The investments will be funded from internal resources. Earlier this wk, GMG’s subsidiary struck a US$410m deal with Cameroon’s govt to develop 45.2k ha of palm oil and rubber plantations. The stock trades at 8.9x P/E, 1.4x P/B.
Comment: GMG has been in the limelight for this week. Share price however, remains weak. This can be an opportunity for long-term investors

O&M
SembMarine (S51) said on Thursday that its unit has secured a US$291.6m worth of contract to build an accommodation semi-submersible rig with options for another 2 units. The rig is ordered by a subsidiary of Prosafe SE, a leading owner and operator of semi-submersible accommodation/service rigs. It is scheduled for delivery in the Q2 of 2014.
Comment: Finally we see some contracts to SembMar. However Keppel is still better on track with their orderbook expectations


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 14 December 2011

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Ideas

Macro

Federal Reserve policy makers refrained from taking new actions to bolster growth at the world’s largest economy.
Comment: Ben Bernanke spent his 58 birthday on the FOMC with no presents. Let's give him credit for that. Considering the direction
of the USD and the resilience of the US markets, there is no immediate concern for the FED to push out more measures. All eyes on
Europe as the EURUSD pair pushes towards 1.3000. As I have mentioned to some, 2 views are in force as the EURUSD pair moves
towards a 1.2000 consensus, 1) ECB printing money 2) EU zone break up which includes but but limited to an exit by Germany


Market-Juice Special - How Ponzi Schemes form
Everyone has heard how bad or evil Ponzi Schemes are with Madoff being a hallmark example.
Market-Juice now shows you how innocently a Ponzi Scheme can be devised.
1) Imagine you are a fund manager and you canvassed $100m from investors and you contractually promise to give them a 10% return
2) When the market is good everything is fine however, sometimes you do not make 10% but that is fine as there is enough money
in the pot to distribute and, still have investable money
3) When the market is bad, you start making losses
4) Now lets say you start a year with $100m and end the year with $100m, flat
5) You still have to pay out $10m (10%) so you are left with $90m
6) The following year, you start with $90m when your investors assume you have $100m7) Even if you make 10%, you have $99m, you pay out $10m but now you have $89m left
8) It is a vicious cycle if you cannot outperform the 10% benchmark after a bad year and you end up drawing down on the money pot
9) Up to a certain point, you realise that you have to canvass more money to add to the money pot to pay off your initial investors
10) Voila! Ponzi Scheme formed!


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 12 December 2011

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Announcements

market-juice now comes in Daily and Mid-day editions depending on market conditions

Ideas

Coal
Gloucester Coal Ltd. gained 4.1% to A$7.69. The miner is targeting 5.5m tons of production in the 2012 fiscal year and 10m tons by 2015, according to a regulatory filing.
Whitehaven Coal Ltd. agreed to buy Aston Resources Ltd. A$2.25b in shares to create the biggest independent publicly traded coal company in Australia. The offer values Aston at A$11 a share, 13% more than Aston’s closing price on Dec. 9
Comment: The coal market seems bussling. Gloucester Coal is partially owned by Noble (N21). Also consider short-term trades on Sakari (AJ1)

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 09 December 2011

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Announcements

market-juice now comes in Daily and Mid-day editions depending on market conditions


Ideas

Singapore

Banks brace for slower growth in home loans.But foreigners not major source of mortgage business
Comment: Foreigners were the main source of demand for the mass market private residences which dragged up the entire mass market. The chain reaction from this demand shift is what is going to affect everything from condos to public housing

To avoid paying ABSD, developers must build, sell all units on residential sites within 5 years
Comment: Seems that developers may have to change their strategy. No more hording of land, no more taking their time to sell inventory from newly acquired sites

The residential market in Sentosa Cove - where foreigners and corporations accounted for 46% of home purchases in the first 11mths of 2011 - could be hit especially hard by the latest round of cooling measures, say analysts.
Comment: According to Kim Eng's report yesterday, Ho Bee (H13) has 469 units, CityDev (C09) has 207 units and SC Global (D2S) has 31 units unsold at Sentosa Cove

Analysis of the property situation
Comment: A few moons ago, I have expressed my reservations to the booming property market in this note. At this point, my estimate for the correction is anything between 20 to 30% decline. The reason for this is, 1) it is not in the interest of the government to force property into a bear market, that will be lose-lose. So a 20% decline is reasonable for now. Reservation of buyers shall push this to the maximum. 2) The additional 10% decline may come from the downstream effect to 10% ABSD which is applicable to the top end of the demand curve, the foreigners. Why I call them this is mentioned above


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views Mid-day 08 December 2011

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Announcements
market-juice now comes in Daily and Mid-day editions depending on market conditions

Ideas
Singapore Property
Starting today, foreigners and corporate entities buying private homes in Singapore will have to pay an extra 10% by way of an additional buyer's stamp duty. This duty will also apply to permanent residents (PRs) buying their second or subsequent homes and Singaporeans buying their third residential property or more - though only to the tune of 3%. Overseas properties are excluded from the count of properties owned. Comment: Policy likely to affect banks and developers. Of the banks, DBS has abt S$52b in loans to housing and construction sector, UOB $53b, abt 40% of their loan book. OCBC has less exposure abt S$41b (34%) (data frm June 2011)Of the Developers, Citydev has the most unsold units at 5381, Cland at 3135 and Frasers (F&N) at 2258.
Prices have gapped down at opening today and probably set to move lower over the next few days

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 07 December 2011

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Announcements
market-juice now comes in Daily and Mid-day editions depending on market conditions

Ideas
Macro
“There are so many exogenous factors that to try to forecast the market with a degree of confidence is difficult,” Birinyi says. The best strategy for stock investors, he says, is to stick with iconic brands, such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) or Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL), and with companies that offer “meaningful dividends” of at least 5%. Birinyi is the president of stock market research and money- management firm Birinyi Associates Inc.
Comment: Yet another prominent analyst and fund manager makes a statement on volatility. Traders trive on volatility but investors can sometimes be frustrated. Suggest taking a shorter-term trading perspective for the next 6 mths
Singapore
More layoffs loom and may linger next year. Unions expect 20% more retrenchments this year; next year even more uncertain: PM Lee
Comment: This affirms my statement mention in this note some weeks ago. Many are unaware of the weakness of the economy with fluffed up statistics being declared. Citibank just announced that it will cut 4500 jobs and limit hiring to "critical" jobs. Citi is not the first bank to do so and to such extent. When banks start controlling head count in such a way to control costs, other industries usually follow. This is a global phenomenon, not a local one. We are not isolated and resilient to the global environment as we will like to be

Casino Gaming
Melco Crown Entertainment (6883.HK) to start trading in HK today
Comment: Melco is the company of Lawrence Ho, son of tycoon Stanley Ho. First listed in the US, it now has a secondary listing in HK. Currently, the Melco Int (200.HK) is the property development arm. Melco Crown Entertainment is the casino arm. Consider trading the HK market. Commissions are generally lower than the Singapore market and get exposure to more alternatives to Genting

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements