一目均衡表

Announcements
The inconsistent posting is regretted. Be sure to check this space every week. I will update it once a week from now on. No point updating everyday as I am not a reporter.

Market Action
Notice I dropped the "Today". I suppose it is more useful to share a boarder view.

The market seems bullish in the short term. However, near term correction is highly possible. Regional markets like the Nikkei and Hang Seng have had strong gains since last week. As of today, the STI gained 88.32 points to finish at 2978.32. In the region, the HSI gained a whooping 607.07 points to reach 23134.55 and the Nikkei also climbed 127.97 points to 13312.93.

Insights and Opinion
I have had comments that my insights needed to be a bit more "insightful". As I endeavour to upgrade the content on this site, here is the first invention to roll out. Introducing, Mao's Ichimoku.

The 一目均衡表 (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) was invented in 1935 by a Japanese writer named 細田悟一氏. It is technical indicator used in technical analysis. Its full definition can be found at Investopedia.

For the purpose of my research, I have customised the Ichimoku for my analysis. I have attached 2 diagrams below to illustrate my findings using Mao's Ichimoku. The customised Ichimoku here has had its variables changed even though the lines are used for the same purpose. Mao's Ichimoku is used best to gauge quarterly (3-month) outlook. Click on the pictures to enlarge them.



Here we have the STI Candlestick chart with Mao's Ichimoku overlay. The Blue line is the Tenkan Sen, Red line is the Kijun Sen. These work like moving averages over a period of 8 and 21 days respectively. The Baby Blue line and Pink line are the Senkou Span A and Span B respectively. The area between the lines are the Ichimoku cloud which is a gauge for support and resistance.

From this chart, the STI is likely to retrace when it reaches 3030 to about 2940 levels. The retracement process will take 2 to 3 trading days. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 3150. 3150 is the part just above the cloud. Due to the current state of the economic fundamentals, it is not likely to see the market break very much above the cloud. Technically speaking from the trend in the chart, it is unlikely that it will not reach for the resistance level in the short term.



Now for the HSI. The HSI is likely to retrace when it reaches 23300 to about 22400 levels. The retracement process is likely to happen within the next 2 trading days and will take 2 to 3 trading days to complete. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 24500. Again, 24500 is the part just above the cloud. Economic fundamentals and technical indicators that apply to the STI are applicable here as well.

Hope you enjoyed this post and found the information useful. Feel free to comment :)