Thursday 24 November 2011

Market Banter

Below is an abstract from a conversation with a fellow equity sales trader:

when buyer come into the mkt later for rebound, they wont bother to q
u will see mkt run up v fast again like the last 2 rebounds
if it is really a bear flag like u say, on the next rebound there wont be a breakout
but if it is like what i m thinking, there may be a breakout
u must understand most money in the mkt now is long US treasuries
underweight equities
when risk taking returns, the short covering will force asset allocation to shift
that can churn and drive up the mkt v fast
and we dun care if it is sustainable cos if we r trader, we cannot hold
the other possibility is risk adversion increase so greatly in the next few days that there is a major selloff cos of panic. everytime at this kind of times, we will see all the indicators pointing to it (oversold chart that can break lower, bad news, fund outflows)
but then, what are the chances?
now the last thing they can sell off is US treasuries first if the mkt is v bad. the equity mkts will lag the treasury mkt cos they got more treasuries to sell
so when i see huge outflow in treasuries, i will be scared. then i will say "sell everything"

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

lion king ! you are my hero!!