Thursday 24 November 2011

Market Views 24 November 2011


Click to enlarge the table above

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Do take note that today is Thanksgiving Day in the US. US markets are closed on Thursday and have a half day on Friday

IDEAS

Macro
Germany failed to receive sufficient bids at a debt sale, adding to concern Europe’s crisis is worsening and driving away investors from risky assets.
Comment: Germany is considered the safest country in the Euro-zone and government debt is the safest investable asset other than keeping cash itself. If not enough investors are willing to buy German debt, it just goes to show how risk adverse the market is

Flow data suggests
1) More interest in cash than anything else (from the movement in Currencies)
2) There is ONLY interest in buying US Treasuries and not other Fixed Income instruments
3) Negative flows have begun to show in Equities across the world
Comment: We can see where this is going. Previously, we have hypothesized that there may be a switch flows to other asset classes as markets move sideways. However, the situation of Buy USD and Buy US Treasuries seem to be the theme as investors seek to protect their money at least until year's end. Currently there is also a significant -ve flow is AUD while the Australian stock market still sees +ve flow. Investors with a more global outlook may seek to go short on Australian stocks as flows may reverse in-line with the rest of the globe

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

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