Announcement
Gradual revamp. Coming back soon...
Tuesday, 29 June 2010
Tuesday, 12 August 2008
Sorry for no posts
Announcements
Sorry for not posting in the past 2 weeks. The market has been uninteresting.
Insights and Opinion
In my last post, I mentioned a reversal in both the STI and HSI. It happened but it only lasted for 2 days. The markets have since been down.
STI
The STI has fell in line with the rest of the markets in the first week of August. Fed and Euro rates being held, helped the market to sustain its low levels and not go lower. The past 2 trading sessions have seen strong gains in the DOW but none here. The Prime Minister warns of trying times and a lower GDP estimate. GDP grown rates in Singapore have slightly contracted in Q2 and have aggravated the bleak situation. This has been a case of fundamentals overwhelming technicals. Technically, the short term outlook is good with an expected climb to a the band of 3000 +/- 50. If the DOW and Nikkei post strong gains in the next few trading sessions, it may overwhelm the negative sentiments here and bring the market up a little before more worries set in. That can be an opportunity to exist open positions.
HSI
The recent storm has caused the Hang Seng to close for a day and has not helped the situation as the HSI seems to be tracking the STI in the last 2 trading sessions. I would expect the HSI be a a reactive market in the next few trading sessions.
Nikkei and DOW
The Nikkei has been tracking Wall Street. This makes it relatively easier to chart than the STI and HSI. However, the strong gains of both markets in the last few trading sessions shall reverse on profit-taking as the markets climb towards their short term resistance range.
More substantial views with new charts shall be posted in the coming days. Watch this space ;)
Sorry for not posting in the past 2 weeks. The market has been uninteresting.
Insights and Opinion
In my last post, I mentioned a reversal in both the STI and HSI. It happened but it only lasted for 2 days. The markets have since been down.
STI
The STI has fell in line with the rest of the markets in the first week of August. Fed and Euro rates being held, helped the market to sustain its low levels and not go lower. The past 2 trading sessions have seen strong gains in the DOW but none here. The Prime Minister warns of trying times and a lower GDP estimate. GDP grown rates in Singapore have slightly contracted in Q2 and have aggravated the bleak situation. This has been a case of fundamentals overwhelming technicals. Technically, the short term outlook is good with an expected climb to a the band of 3000 +/- 50. If the DOW and Nikkei post strong gains in the next few trading sessions, it may overwhelm the negative sentiments here and bring the market up a little before more worries set in. That can be an opportunity to exist open positions.
HSI
The recent storm has caused the Hang Seng to close for a day and has not helped the situation as the HSI seems to be tracking the STI in the last 2 trading sessions. I would expect the HSI be a a reactive market in the next few trading sessions.
Nikkei and DOW
The Nikkei has been tracking Wall Street. This makes it relatively easier to chart than the STI and HSI. However, the strong gains of both markets in the last few trading sessions shall reverse on profit-taking as the markets climb towards their short term resistance range.
More substantial views with new charts shall be posted in the coming days. Watch this space ;)
Wednesday, 30 July 2008
Interim update of the week
Good day, good people!
A little intro, this post to kick start the action and bring a little life at this clean and green site.
Now let's have our market action updates.
Market Action
After 3 trading days as I last wrote about the retracement matter, we see that markets have plunged tremendously, exceeding our expectations of lows. This is partially because the turning points were a little lower than expected. Nonetheless, the expected has happened. We shall now brace for what is to come.
As this is being reported, the STI is at a low of 2886.56, the HSI at 22285.00 and Nikkei at 13159.45 All 3 major Asian indices have fallen considerably since Thursday. On the other hand, Wall street is rebounding from its low.
Insights and Opinion
Moving forward, we have our visual illustrations and opinions on where things are heading.
Starting with the STI, here we see a familiar candlestick. Not that this candlestick is a very special one and that its presence signifies a reversal about to happen, this candlestick after a gap down shows that a reversal is likely to happen. Throughout Tuesday, the market opened much lower and crept up slowly and quite surely, implying short term strength. This
together with our familiar candle is good sign.
On to the HSI. The latest candle is obviously a hammer. Although it is a black one, its presence in a strong bear market is a reversal sign.
Wrapping up, these signs are in line with previous estimates of retracement of the markets and projected short term up trend.
Say tuned for the next update coming soon, within the week, when we confirm this short term up trend and analyse the coming downturn.
A little intro, this post to kick start the action and bring a little life at this clean and green site.
Now let's have our market action updates.
Market Action
After 3 trading days as I last wrote about the retracement matter, we see that markets have plunged tremendously, exceeding our expectations of lows. This is partially because the turning points were a little lower than expected. Nonetheless, the expected has happened. We shall now brace for what is to come.
As this is being reported, the STI is at a low of 2886.56, the HSI at 22285.00 and Nikkei at 13159.45 All 3 major Asian indices have fallen considerably since Thursday. On the other hand, Wall street is rebounding from its low.
Insights and Opinion
Moving forward, we have our visual illustrations and opinions on where things are heading.
Starting with the STI, here we see a familiar candlestick. Not that this candlestick is a very special one and that its presence signifies a reversal about to happen, this candlestick after a gap down shows that a reversal is likely to happen. Throughout Tuesday, the market opened much lower and crept up slowly and quite surely, implying short term strength. This
together with our familiar candle is good sign.
On to the HSI. The latest candle is obviously a hammer. Although it is a black one, its presence in a strong bear market is a reversal sign.
Wrapping up, these signs are in line with previous estimates of retracement of the markets and projected short term up trend.
Say tuned for the next update coming soon, within the week, when we confirm this short term up trend and analyse the coming downturn.
Thursday, 24 July 2008
Turning Point?
Market Action
Both the STI and HSI shed a bit of yesterday's gains (0.04% and 0.20% respectively) despite Wall Streets gains. The Nikkei is up 2.18% to 13603.31. The Singapore market was supported by gains in the banks, SGX as well as Citydev while other counters closed under the water.
Insights and Opinion
Following yesterday's Ichimoku charts, we have 2 charts on near term support and resistance.
This first chart shows the STI candlesticks. The top and bottom horizontal dotted lines are the near term support and resistance lines while the middle dotted line cuts the level at which a slight reversal is possible. The proportion here exhibits what can be believed to be, sacred geometry. In this case, it is just 1:2, where 1 and 2 are Fibonacci numbers. As the market is currently exhibiting a range phenonmenon, I have assumed the possible length of time this cycle will last.
This second chart shows the HSI candlesticks. The lines drawn here have the same meaning. Notice that the patterns for the HSI are similar to that of the STI. Considering the current macroeconomic climate, it is safe to assume that coupling of the markets shall persist for now.
The circled parts in both graphs give me a basis to believe that a short turning point will occur.
Once again, click on the charts to have them enlarged.
Both the STI and HSI shed a bit of yesterday's gains (0.04% and 0.20% respectively) despite Wall Streets gains. The Nikkei is up 2.18% to 13603.31. The Singapore market was supported by gains in the banks, SGX as well as Citydev while other counters closed under the water.
Insights and Opinion
Following yesterday's Ichimoku charts, we have 2 charts on near term support and resistance.
This first chart shows the STI candlesticks. The top and bottom horizontal dotted lines are the near term support and resistance lines while the middle dotted line cuts the level at which a slight reversal is possible. The proportion here exhibits what can be believed to be, sacred geometry. In this case, it is just 1:2, where 1 and 2 are Fibonacci numbers. As the market is currently exhibiting a range phenonmenon, I have assumed the possible length of time this cycle will last.
This second chart shows the HSI candlesticks. The lines drawn here have the same meaning. Notice that the patterns for the HSI are similar to that of the STI. Considering the current macroeconomic climate, it is safe to assume that coupling of the markets shall persist for now.
The circled parts in both graphs give me a basis to believe that a short turning point will occur.
Once again, click on the charts to have them enlarged.
Wednesday, 23 July 2008
一目均衡表
Announcements
The inconsistent posting is regretted. Be sure to check this space every week. I will update it once a week from now on. No point updating everyday as I am not a reporter.
Market Action
Notice I dropped the "Today". I suppose it is more useful to share a boarder view.
The market seems bullish in the short term. However, near term correction is highly possible. Regional markets like the Nikkei and Hang Seng have had strong gains since last week. As of today, the STI gained 88.32 points to finish at 2978.32. In the region, the HSI gained a whooping 607.07 points to reach 23134.55 and the Nikkei also climbed 127.97 points to 13312.93.
Insights and Opinion
I have had comments that my insights needed to be a bit more "insightful". As I endeavour to upgrade the content on this site, here is the first invention to roll out. Introducing, Mao's Ichimoku.
The 一目均衡表 (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) was invented in 1935 by a Japanese writer named 細田悟一氏. It is technical indicator used in technical analysis. Its full definition can be found at Investopedia.
For the purpose of my research, I have customised the Ichimoku for my analysis. I have attached 2 diagrams below to illustrate my findings using Mao's Ichimoku. The customised Ichimoku here has had its variables changed even though the lines are used for the same purpose. Mao's Ichimoku is used best to gauge quarterly (3-month) outlook. Click on the pictures to enlarge them.
Here we have the STI Candlestick chart with Mao's Ichimoku overlay. The Blue line is the Tenkan Sen, Red line is the Kijun Sen. These work like moving averages over a period of 8 and 21 days respectively. The Baby Blue line and Pink line are the Senkou Span A and Span B respectively. The area between the lines are the Ichimoku cloud which is a gauge for support and resistance.
From this chart, the STI is likely to retrace when it reaches 3030 to about 2940 levels. The retracement process will take 2 to 3 trading days. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 3150. 3150 is the part just above the cloud. Due to the current state of the economic fundamentals, it is not likely to see the market break very much above the cloud. Technically speaking from the trend in the chart, it is unlikely that it will not reach for the resistance level in the short term.
Now for the HSI. The HSI is likely to retrace when it reaches 23300 to about 22400 levels. The retracement process is likely to happen within the next 2 trading days and will take 2 to 3 trading days to complete. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 24500. Again, 24500 is the part just above the cloud. Economic fundamentals and technical indicators that apply to the STI are applicable here as well.
Hope you enjoyed this post and found the information useful. Feel free to comment :)
The inconsistent posting is regretted. Be sure to check this space every week. I will update it once a week from now on. No point updating everyday as I am not a reporter.
Market Action
Notice I dropped the "Today". I suppose it is more useful to share a boarder view.
The market seems bullish in the short term. However, near term correction is highly possible. Regional markets like the Nikkei and Hang Seng have had strong gains since last week. As of today, the STI gained 88.32 points to finish at 2978.32. In the region, the HSI gained a whooping 607.07 points to reach 23134.55 and the Nikkei also climbed 127.97 points to 13312.93.
Insights and Opinion
I have had comments that my insights needed to be a bit more "insightful". As I endeavour to upgrade the content on this site, here is the first invention to roll out. Introducing, Mao's Ichimoku.
The 一目均衡表 (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) was invented in 1935 by a Japanese writer named 細田悟一氏. It is technical indicator used in technical analysis. Its full definition can be found at Investopedia.
For the purpose of my research, I have customised the Ichimoku for my analysis. I have attached 2 diagrams below to illustrate my findings using Mao's Ichimoku. The customised Ichimoku here has had its variables changed even though the lines are used for the same purpose. Mao's Ichimoku is used best to gauge quarterly (3-month) outlook. Click on the pictures to enlarge them.
Here we have the STI Candlestick chart with Mao's Ichimoku overlay. The Blue line is the Tenkan Sen, Red line is the Kijun Sen. These work like moving averages over a period of 8 and 21 days respectively. The Baby Blue line and Pink line are the Senkou Span A and Span B respectively. The area between the lines are the Ichimoku cloud which is a gauge for support and resistance.
From this chart, the STI is likely to retrace when it reaches 3030 to about 2940 levels. The retracement process will take 2 to 3 trading days. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 3150. 3150 is the part just above the cloud. Due to the current state of the economic fundamentals, it is not likely to see the market break very much above the cloud. Technically speaking from the trend in the chart, it is unlikely that it will not reach for the resistance level in the short term.
Now for the HSI. The HSI is likely to retrace when it reaches 23300 to about 22400 levels. The retracement process is likely to happen within the next 2 trading days and will take 2 to 3 trading days to complete. After this, it is likely to go all the way to a resistance at 24500. Again, 24500 is the part just above the cloud. Economic fundamentals and technical indicators that apply to the STI are applicable here as well.
Hope you enjoyed this post and found the information useful. Feel free to comment :)
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