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Announcements
market-juice now comes in Daily and Mid-day editions depending on market conditions
Ideas
Singapore
Banks brace for slower growth in home loans.But foreigners not major source of mortgage business
Comment: Foreigners were the main source of demand for the mass market private residences which dragged up the entire mass market. The chain reaction from this demand shift is what is going to affect everything from condos to public housing
To avoid paying ABSD, developers must build, sell all units on residential sites within 5 years
Comment: Seems that developers may have to change their strategy. No more hording of land, no more taking their time to sell inventory from newly acquired sites
The residential market in Sentosa Cove - where foreigners and corporations accounted for 46% of home purchases in the first 11mths of 2011 - could be hit especially hard by the latest round of cooling measures, say analysts.
Comment: According to Kim Eng's report yesterday, Ho Bee (H13) has 469 units, CityDev (C09) has 207 units and SC Global (D2S) has 31 units unsold at Sentosa Cove
Analysis of the property situation
Comment: A few moons ago, I have expressed my reservations to the booming property market in this note. At this point, my estimate for the correction is anything between 20 to 30% decline. The reason for this is, 1) it is not in the interest of the government to force property into a bear market, that will be lose-lose. So a 20% decline is reasonable for now. Reservation of buyers shall push this to the maximum. 2) The additional 10% decline may come from the downstream effect to 10% ABSD which is applicable to the top end of the demand curve, the foreigners. Why I call them this is mentioned above
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements
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