Market Views 07 December 2011

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Announcements
market-juice now comes in Daily and Mid-day editions depending on market conditions

Ideas
Macro
“There are so many exogenous factors that to try to forecast the market with a degree of confidence is difficult,” Birinyi says. The best strategy for stock investors, he says, is to stick with iconic brands, such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) or Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL), and with companies that offer “meaningful dividends” of at least 5%. Birinyi is the president of stock market research and money- management firm Birinyi Associates Inc.
Comment: Yet another prominent analyst and fund manager makes a statement on volatility. Traders trive on volatility but investors can sometimes be frustrated. Suggest taking a shorter-term trading perspective for the next 6 mths
Singapore
More layoffs loom and may linger next year. Unions expect 20% more retrenchments this year; next year even more uncertain: PM Lee
Comment: This affirms my statement mention in this note some weeks ago. Many are unaware of the weakness of the economy with fluffed up statistics being declared. Citibank just announced that it will cut 4500 jobs and limit hiring to "critical" jobs. Citi is not the first bank to do so and to such extent. When banks start controlling head count in such a way to control costs, other industries usually follow. This is a global phenomenon, not a local one. We are not isolated and resilient to the global environment as we will like to be

Casino Gaming
Melco Crown Entertainment (6883.HK) to start trading in HK today
Comment: Melco is the company of Lawrence Ho, son of tycoon Stanley Ho. First listed in the US, it now has a secondary listing in HK. Currently, the Melco Int (200.HK) is the property development arm. Melco Crown Entertainment is the casino arm. Consider trading the HK market. Commissions are generally lower than the Singapore market and get exposure to more alternatives to Genting

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views Mid-day 06 December 2011

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Announcements

market-juice now comes in Daily and Mid-day editions depending on market conditions


Ideas

Macro
S&P put Germany, France and 13 other euro-area nations on review for a downgrade yesterday, saying “continuing disagreements among European policy makers on how to tackle” the region’s debt crisis risk damaging their financial stability
Comment: The US has already been downgraded. A downgrade of EU nations is not unexpected

The S&P 500 Index may advance to between 1,330 and 1,345 this month before the rally reverses, according to Tom DeMark, the creator of indicators to show turning points in securities.
Comment: Anyone uses the DeMark indicators? If you see my upside target, it is around there too
Property

The phenomenon of shadow office space is making a comeback. Tenants who find themselves stuck with excess space are looking to dispose of it by finding sub-tenants or replacement tenants.
Comment: I find this point a red flag. The office properties space lagged the residential property sub-sector. This phenomenon is a sign of reversal in the boom uptrend that we have seen in the last 2 years. This just shows the impending reversal into a bearish trend of the property market, regardless of sub-sector. Considering the extent of the last boom, residential sub-sector can be reasonably expected to see more volatile movements


Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 05 December 2011

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Ideas

Macro
Prime Minister Mario Monti will lobby parliament to support a 30b-euro package of austerity and growth measures to trim the euro-region’s second-biggest debt and prevent Italy from sparking the euro’s breakup.
Comment: It is quite sensible for the Italians to think about this. Considering the current market condition, this is likely to give some +ve catalyst to the markets for now. Flow indicators have shown +ve Flow into equities across US and developing countries. As such catalysts are not very sustainable for longer rallies, suggest sticking to high betas in the Commodities and O&M space for the ride

Barton Biggs, who trimmed bullish bets in September before U.S. stocks posted the biggest monthly gain since 1991, said that while he doesn’t want to be fully invested in equities, “it’s hard to get really bearish.”
Comment: Barton Biggs is one of those people the market listens to, even though his performance has not been as spectacular as Soros or Buffett

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views 02 December 2011

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Announcements

Introducing market-juice!
Adrian's Market Views notes has a new identity and a whole suite or services.
You can now view market-juice online, @ market-juice.blogspot.com
You can also follow market-juice on Facebook and Twitter
This is the soft-launch of market-juice. Look forward to your feedback ☺


Ideas

Commodities
Olam (O32) to set up US$49m rice farming and milling facility. The facility, located in Nigeria, will see operations commence in 2012. The facility will begin to generate revenue in FY2013, and will be fully operational by FY2016.
Comment: News came out after market close yesterday. Suggest to accumulate under 235

Laggard call: Dyna-Mac (NO4). Price has declined tremendously and may be lagging behind all the other O&M

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements

Market Views Midday 01 December 2011

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Announcements

Introducing market-juice!
Adrian's Market Views notes has a new identity and a whole suite or services.
You can now view market-juice online, @ market-juice.blogspot.com
You can also follow market-juice on Facebook and Twitter
This is the soft-launch of market-juice. Look forward to your feedback ☺


Ideas
Macro
Six central banks led by the Federal Reserve agreed to cut the cost of providing dollar funding via swap agreements and to make other currencies available as needed. The People’s Bank of China cut banks’ reserve requirements yesterday for the first time since 2008
Comment: Markets seemed terribily rigged now with a coordinated effort to provide liquidity. A "great QE" for now. Together with PBOC cutting banks RRR, this pumps even more easy money into the market. Markets will probably soar for a today and tomorrow with some profit-taking here and there. Another thing to note is that this will cause DXY to decline and commodity prices to go up. Looking at high beta commodity stocks for trading


Update 233pm

Noble: Coal prospector Aspire Mining (AKM.AU) said Noble has agreed to market coking coal from the Ovoot project being developed in northern Mongolia.
The alliance gives Noble marketing rights to at least half of the first 5m mt of coal produced at Ovoot, subject to the establishment of a road and rail port link with customers.
It said the pact with Noble will focus on a supply chain to customers in China, north Asia and other coking coal markets served by sea. It also will see the establishment of the Ovoot coal brand.
News of the deal buoyed Aspire's shares, which ended the day 8.9% higher at A 30.5 cts.
Aspire currently is working to increase the estimated resource at Ovoot, which initially has been shown to have 330.7m tons.
Noble earlier this year agreed to help Australia's Xanadu Mines Ltd. (XAM.AU) explore for coking coal, iron ore and ferroalloys in Mongolia.
Noble has an 8.3% stake in Aspire, which also has other coal projects in Mongolia, and a 9.9% interest in Xanadu.
Noble is up 6.1% at $1.21

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, The Business Times, Analyst Reports, Company Announcements