Today seemed like a good time to buy, certain big counters were down. It could be merely an issue of tracking but the dividend payout this time of the year could be another reason.
What is left is just to keep watching to check if this judgment is right.
Thursday 15 May 2008
Wednesday 14 May 2008
Steady Up?
I had a sudden argue to comment about this. The market seems to have been rising steadily in the past 2 trading days. This is to be taken note of. If such a phenomenon persists for a good length of time, it can be time to trade an upswing. But beware of going in too late cos profits may have been diminished.
Tuesday 13 May 2008
Notice
No market wrap today.
I think it is more valuable for me to do good insights once in a while rather than churning out posts everyday just for the sake of it. It makes me no different from a newspaper reporter, which I am not and do not wish to be at least for now and for the purpose of posting here.
So until there is some adverse change happening, I shall keep my posts to be a weekly wrap every weekend.
Look out for that! ;)
I think it is more valuable for me to do good insights once in a while rather than churning out posts everyday just for the sake of it. It makes me no different from a newspaper reporter, which I am not and do not wish to be at least for now and for the purpose of posting here.
So until there is some adverse change happening, I shall keep my posts to be a weekly wrap every weekend.
Look out for that! ;)
Friday 9 May 2008
100 points off for the week
The STI shed 9.85 points today to finish at 3162.03. All in all, the market has lost 100 points in this week's trading. A bit more than the flat week predicted by analysts in the news.
Heavy weight SingTel fell almost 20 cents this week while SGX almost 80 cents! For the banks which declared their Q1 earnings this week, DBS lost more than 40 cents, UOB almost 80 cents and OCBC lost about only 20 cents. OCBC seems to have been spared a larger drop due to its price and also its release of strong Q1 profit margins.
As usual these few days, my outlook remains bear. I have been contemplating on whether to release my opinions weekly instead of daily, so as to add more value. Day to day fluctuations have not been fantastic recently and it seems to have become a bit less interesting.
Heavy weight SingTel fell almost 20 cents this week while SGX almost 80 cents! For the banks which declared their Q1 earnings this week, DBS lost more than 40 cents, UOB almost 80 cents and OCBC lost about only 20 cents. OCBC seems to have been spared a larger drop due to its price and also its release of strong Q1 profit margins.
As usual these few days, my outlook remains bear. I have been contemplating on whether to release my opinions weekly instead of daily, so as to add more value. Day to day fluctuations have not been fantastic recently and it seems to have become a bit less interesting.
Down Down
The market plunged 57.07 points today finishing at 3171.88. The morning session was bad as the market fell more than 75 points before lunchtime. After lunch, market action picked up a little to range until the finish. After 5pm trading was relatively flat as well.
There seems to be no glimpse of a good upside for now. Friday may be a white candle day but in my opinion, this is unlikely. The market tends to be conservative on Fridays. Current short term outlook is bear. No change until the target resistance of 3000 +/- 50 or until any good news changes current sentiments completely.
There seems to be no glimpse of a good upside for now. Friday may be a white candle day but in my opinion, this is unlikely. The market tends to be conservative on Fridays. Current short term outlook is bear. No change until the target resistance of 3000 +/- 50 or until any good news changes current sentiments completely.
Thursday 8 May 2008
Down from here?
The market dropped 19.80 points to close at 3228.95. So far, it has kept well to my 3250 +/- 50 resistance estimates. However, I do not rule out the possibility that my estimates can be wrong. We all would wish for a better market.
Today's downturn may mark the start of a downswing keeping the market in range behaviour. This provides it does not break its support, my opinion is that this should be at 3000 +/- 50. This shall signal a range market that might well be the start of a new cycle like I mentioned before. If it does break the support, the next support would be somewhere around 2800 +/- 50 where it was before. Simple estimates based on the charts and using some Fibonacci retracements and projections.
For now, I would continue to monitor the charts for buy signals and opportunity. In this high inflationary environment, investing in business trusts can be a good option as these hold real assets like ships, buildings and infrastructure. I would think of looking for opportunities in these areas.
Today's downturn may mark the start of a downswing keeping the market in range behaviour. This provides it does not break its support, my opinion is that this should be at 3000 +/- 50. This shall signal a range market that might well be the start of a new cycle like I mentioned before. If it does break the support, the next support would be somewhere around 2800 +/- 50 where it was before. Simple estimates based on the charts and using some Fibonacci retracements and projections.
For now, I would continue to monitor the charts for buy signals and opportunity. In this high inflationary environment, investing in business trusts can be a good option as these hold real assets like ships, buildings and infrastructure. I would think of looking for opportunities in these areas.
Tuesday 6 May 2008
Overbought?
The market closed 0.71 points up at 3248.75. Yup prices have remained high. Analysts are saying that the market is overbought. Considering the rise in prices of the weights, the "heavier" weights have not advanced as much as the "lighter" ones.
If the market is going to remain bullish. Today's steady trend will signal the start of a new cycle. Otherwise, the market has peaked for now. One can be weary of a breakout at such a stage as there is a good chance that the breakout will signal a turnaround.
The thing I would watch now are the candlesticks. Yesterday looked like a shooting star while today seems like a doji. The market has kind of lost its sense of direction now. I would continue watching before taking any further action.
If the market is going to remain bullish. Today's steady trend will signal the start of a new cycle. Otherwise, the market has peaked for now. One can be weary of a breakout at such a stage as there is a good chance that the breakout will signal a turnaround.
The thing I would watch now are the candlesticks. Yesterday looked like a shooting star while today seems like a doji. The market has kind of lost its sense of direction now. I would continue watching before taking any further action.
Monday 5 May 2008
Matching Expectations
Yes! The market closed at 3248.04 today, up 11.94 points matching my earlier expectations. The STI has been tracking the US markets (DOW especially) and can be expected to continue tracking it.
The dominance of this coupling trends suggests that the worse is not yet over and there might be more bad news coming. That and also the fact that traders are very very careful now and watching and following one another's foot steps. According to a forum which I attended last week, "bankers need time to forget" said the presenter. I totally agree looking at what is happening now. Last year's problems need to be forgotten.
Looking on the bright side, business outlook is still good for the next 6 months as the market remains relatively optimistic and vibrant for now.
On trading and prices of stock. Counters here are showing signs of hitting resistance bands and trading sideways at a relatively high range. This can mean 2 things.
1) Prices are high. Counters are overweight. It is a sell time and not time to put your money in.
2) The hovering prices can mean the beginning of new cycles. This means that the current prices are good for a buy.
Looking at current trading patterns showing that prices are resonating, I would think that "1" is probably the case for now, considering that there is no real sign of a boom period coming very soon. Time will tell but I will still be weary of a breakout as it may not necessary be a positive sign.
The dominance of this coupling trends suggests that the worse is not yet over and there might be more bad news coming. That and also the fact that traders are very very careful now and watching and following one another's foot steps. According to a forum which I attended last week, "bankers need time to forget" said the presenter. I totally agree looking at what is happening now. Last year's problems need to be forgotten.
Looking on the bright side, business outlook is still good for the next 6 months as the market remains relatively optimistic and vibrant for now.
On trading and prices of stock. Counters here are showing signs of hitting resistance bands and trading sideways at a relatively high range. This can mean 2 things.
1) Prices are high. Counters are overweight. It is a sell time and not time to put your money in.
2) The hovering prices can mean the beginning of new cycles. This means that the current prices are good for a buy.
Looking at current trading patterns showing that prices are resonating, I would think that "1" is probably the case for now, considering that there is no real sign of a boom period coming very soon. Time will tell but I will still be weary of a breakout as it may not necessary be a positive sign.
Unexpected High
A late post again due to a busy weekend.
Friday was a good day for the market as it rose 88.31 points to a 4-month high to close at 3236.10. This, after it shot up more than 60 points at the beginning of the day.
Alas, I was not able to watch the numbers throughout the day due to heavy work commitment. Double bummer for not being able to comment on trading for the day.
The movements on Friday were a bit unexpected but it seemed to have tracked Wall Street gains. The DOW has not been up above the 13000 since it fell from the spot at the beginning of the 2008. Reports have attributed this rise to be a spark of optimism from the 0.1% fall in unemployment rate, Fed rate cuts and a strengthening greenback . This suggests that the US economy is either turning from a bottom or stagnating and, not tumbling into doom and depression.
Since economists do not expect decoupling of markets to occur anytime soon, I guess we should hold the same expectation. The US market showed moderate gains on Friday after a surge on Thursday. Considering the tracking phenomenon, the STI may show moderate gains on Monday as a result. My current estimate of resistance band holds at 3250 +/- 50.
Friday was a good day for the market as it rose 88.31 points to a 4-month high to close at 3236.10. This, after it shot up more than 60 points at the beginning of the day.
Alas, I was not able to watch the numbers throughout the day due to heavy work commitment. Double bummer for not being able to comment on trading for the day.
The movements on Friday were a bit unexpected but it seemed to have tracked Wall Street gains. The DOW has not been up above the 13000 since it fell from the spot at the beginning of the 2008. Reports have attributed this rise to be a spark of optimism from the 0.1% fall in unemployment rate, Fed rate cuts and a strengthening greenback . This suggests that the US economy is either turning from a bottom or stagnating and, not tumbling into doom and depression.
Since economists do not expect decoupling of markets to occur anytime soon, I guess we should hold the same expectation. The US market showed moderate gains on Friday after a surge on Thursday. Considering the tracking phenomenon, the STI may show moderate gains on Monday as a result. My current estimate of resistance band holds at 3250 +/- 50.
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