Monday 21 April 2008

Shooting star?

The market opened higher this morning and continued trading upwards until 11am. High prices sparked a selling trend that persists throughout the day. The market finally closed at 3171.09, up 46.22 points.

Today's candle stick resembles a shooting star, a short white candle with a long wick and no leg. If today's selling continues, which can well be the case, the market shall continue a downtrend. However, looking at charts 6-months and a year, a new market cycle seems to be starting. Even though the general sentiment is negative, volatile counters are relatively more stable than before and the winning ones are increasing steadily. Some of these counters, I have noticed are index weights and this is a positive signal for the general market.

Considering the possible shooting start today and general fundamentals, I upgrade my near-term support to be at around 3000. Even though the very near-term remains Bear, there is a chance of the market rebounding into a Bull phase of a new market cycle in the next 6 months. Buying at a low would mean, buying at the breakout of the next down swing because the market can be expected be climbing upwards thereafter.

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